{"id":1754,"date":"2020-05-28T11:27:57","date_gmt":"2020-05-28T11:27:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/?p=1754"},"modified":"2020-05-28T11:27:57","modified_gmt":"2020-05-28T11:27:57","slug":"some-thoughts-on-our-first-role-play","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/?p=1754","title":{"rendered":"Some Thoughts on our First Role Play"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Our first role play took place and had four groups of active discussion participants (note my free interpretation):<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Scientists, who are convinced their modeling is correct and supports the need for action;<\/li>\n<li>Scientists, who think that modeling is not so valuable but still support strongly the need for action;<\/li>\n<li>Politicians, who argue in line with climate activists and urge for changes of our behavior for the sake of climate protection;<\/li>\n<li>Politicians, who are in favor of a business friendly &#8220;business as usual&#8221; line, arguing that evidence is not enough to take strong action.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>I found the discussion very well prepared and the arguments exchanged were \u2013 seen from each of the perspectives \u2013 very reasonable. I hope the discussion showed that there is no simple answer.<\/p>\n<p>In hindsight, I would like to reflect on the role of uncertainty in this discussion. There were a few instances, where this was actually mentioned:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lena presented a figure of the (modeled) Arctic sea ice extend, where one model driven by slightly perturbed initial data showed quite some spread in the final result (though the trends were very similar indeed);<\/li>\n<li>Lars Kutzbach showed a figure, in which the measured global temperature curve was plotted against IPCC scenarios and was at the very low end of the spread, indicating that the models possibly overestimate the true warming;<\/li>\n<li>The conservative (I wouldn&#8217;t actually call them conservatives, since they play with our future instead of conserving our habitat, but anyhow&#8230;) politicians argued that uncertainty in the results is large and does not grant immediate action.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>What I find striking is the fact that this uncertainty is somewhat hijacked in order to prevent us from taking strong decisions. So, I was wondering if the term of uncertainty or the whole frame thereoff needs to be taken into account and put into different context. My observation \u2013 when looking at myself and my reception of the topic \u2013 was that for me as an educated scientist there is not much of an uncertainty. The facts appear cristal clear to me and there is not much left to argue about any longer. But I have a clear understanding of the role each of the uncertainties play. I know that the measured temperature as well as the projected modeled temperature trend involve uncertainties, but that within their confidence intervalls they are matching very well. From this it is also clear that there is not much doubt about the accuracy of our predictive skill over the next couple decades.<\/p>\n<p><strong>So, we need to be aware that uncertainty is hijacked!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>My question now is, how can we prevent this from happening? And I am not talking about the fundamental climate deniers. I am talking about the open minded but sceptical public.<\/p>\n<p>I am looking forward to your thoughts in the discussion below!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our first role play took place and had four groups of active discussion participants (note my free interpretation): Scientists, who are convinced their modeling is correct and supports the need for action; Scientists, who think that modeling is not so valuable but still support strongly the need for action; Politicians, who argue in line with<a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/?p=1754\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">&#8220;Some Thoughts on our First Role Play&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":1591,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[97],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-first-ideas"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/books-933333_1920.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1754"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1754\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1755,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1754\/revisions\/1755"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1591"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}