Throughout the course \u201cUncertain 2 Degrees?\u201d and especially during the role play sessions, the communication of science and its related uncertainties was often discussed. The recent flood in western Germany, particularly in North-Rhine Westphalia and Rhineland-Palestinate, and some parts of Bavaria, has once again pointed out the lack and confusion in the communication among German officials and the inhabitants of the regions. In this post I would like to look at two aspects of the communication in relation to the flood event. On the one hand I would like to address how poorly the threat was communicated to the people in potential risk areas, showing how important the early and clear communication of such events is, regardless of whether there is an uncertainty in the event happening as predicted. On the other hand, I would like to look at how the message that the catastrophe was not necessarily caused by climate change although it is much agreed on that it was, is being spread (Neubauer, Kesselrund and Rathcke).<\/p>\n
The flood-event mid-July 2021 in North-Rhine Westphalia and Rhineland-Palestinate was \u201cone of the deadliest natural catastrophes in Germany since the second world war\u201d (Oswald and L\u00f6he). Nine days before the flood-event, satellite data had shown that such a severe flood was coming, four days before the event, the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) warned the governments at risk and 24 hours before the event exact locations of affected areas were known (Oswald and L\u00f6he). However, the warning did not reach the affected citizens on time, but why? Yes, at the time of the event people have been warned through both sirens and warning apps, as well as the traditional media, but at that point it was too late to prepare and to evacuate. What came to my mind is, whether the reason for not clearly communicating the prediction of the flood 9 days in advance, when it had first been observed from satellite data, was because of the uncertainty of it happening. Could it be that the distrust in models and predictions lead to the government\u2019s decision that, as there was a possibility that the predictions would turn out to be too catastrophic, it would not be worth to alarm citizens and evacuate the areas? Most of the material damage could probably not have been avoided but the amount of lives lost through the event could certainly have been reduced. Regardless of whether the decision not to alert the public earlier was due to uncertainties, I believe that this shows how important it is to consider when uncertainties should be communicated and when it is better not to. When there is the time and space to clearly explain possible uncertainties, while still highlighting the possible risks and implications of inaction, then I believe the full story should be told, but I also believe that there are scenarios where it is best to keep that side of the story to the experts. When time is limited and the consequences of inaction are potentially as catastrophic as in this example, communicating uncertainty would lead to confusion and doubt on whether to act. Therefore, I believe that one would be better off if the predicted event would be communicated as a certainty.<\/p>\n
The second aspect, which I would like to shortly touch upon, is that there seems to be a disagreement on whether the flood and its dimension are really related to the climate crisis. Stefan Rahmsdorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research stated that \u201calready more than 30 years ago, climate models predicted that days with little rain would become less while the number of extremely heavy rain days would increase\u201d (Kesselrund and Rathcke). Furthermore, it is clearly known that due to an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere the global average atmospheric air temperature is rising, and that warmer air can hold more water (Kesselrund and Rathcke), according to Luisa Neubauer in the TV show \u201cMarkus Lanz\u201d on July 21st<\/sup>, 2021 on the German TV channel ZDF, \u201cair can hold 7% more water per one degree of warming\u201d (Neubauer). However, Stefan Rahmsdorf also says that it is not certain whether this effect on precipitation is really related to global warming (Kesselrund and Rathcke). With scientists making such statements of uncertainty to the public, we must not wonder why society does not see the need to act. Even if sometimes there is room for uncertainty, people should be made aware of how much such weather extremes could very well be due to global warming, and if there is time and space to tell the full story only then this should be done.<\/p>\n I am very much looking forward to hearing your opinions on this issue.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n References:<\/p>\n Kesselrund, Martin and Julia Rathcke. \u201cWetter-Extreme Und Klimawandel: Ganz Eindeutig Ist Der Zusammenhang Nicht.\u201d\u00a0Aachener Zeitung<\/em>, Aachener Zeitung, 15 July 2021, www.aachener-zeitung.de\/nrw-region\/ganz-eindeutig-ist-der-zusammenhang-nicht_aid-61403963?_ga=2.93342558.210662093.1626857983-2141086095.1626364984utm_source&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=share.<\/p>\n Neubauer, Luisa. \u201cMarkus Lanz<\/em>\u201d, ZDF (Zweite Deutsche Fernesehen), 21 July 2021<\/p>\n Oswald, Fabian and L\u00f6he, Andreas. \u201cDeutschland Wurde Pr\u00e4zise Gewarnt \u2013 Die B\u00fcrger Aber Nicht.\u201d\u00a0Der Tagesspiegel<\/em>, 21 July 2021, www.tagesspiegel.de\/politik\/schwere-vorwuerfe-deutschland-wurde-praezise-gewarnt-die-buerger-aber-nicht\/27433034.html.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Throughout the course \u201cUncertain 2 Degrees?\u201d and especially during the role play sessions, the communication of science and its related uncertainties was often discussed. The recent flood in western Germany, particularly in North-Rhine Westphalia and Rhineland-Palestinate, and some parts of Bavaria, has once again pointed out the lack and confusion in the communication among GermanContinue reading “The Importance of Communication – What Can We Learn from the Recent Flood-Event?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":77,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[145],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-students-blogs-2021"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2193","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/77"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2193"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2193\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2194,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2193\/revisions\/2194"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2193"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2193"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2193"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}