As we all know, the reliability of temperature trends is very important in climate change we need to be sure we can trust historical measurements.<\/p>\n
First we found stations have exposure problem. There is a survey from 2009 in the US to check the quality of the measurement\u2019s environment of 1,221 climate-monitoring stations belongs to NOAA. They found that 89 percent of the stations fail to meet the National Weather Service\u2019s own siting requirements that is, stations must be 30 meters or more away from an artificial heating or radiating\/reflecting heat source.<\/p>\n
If a climate station is moved, malfunctions, or if the time of day at which the observations are taken changes, the temperature record is discontinuous.It is not known whether adjustment techniques satisfactorily compensate for biases caused by poor siting. They should also be away from urban areas to avoid the urban heat island (UHI) effect.<\/p>\n
Second, Missing data add the uncertainty. For instance when they change instrument, there is no other temperature sensors that permit intercomparison record. How they fix the missing data is to fill in with data from nearby sites. However, this is only possible if there are many stations suitably close together, which is for the most part only true in parts of the US and Europe. In some area For example, the Sahara desert, the observation mostly depends on satellites.<\/p>\n
Third, uncertainty is not only caused by exposure problem. Considered measurement error and magnitude uncertainty, the global surface air temperature anomaly with its 95% confidence interval is 0.8\u00b10.98 C in 1856-2004. Thus, the global average surface air temperature trend is statistically indistinguishable from 0 C.<\/p>\n
So our group believe that existing temperature data to study climate change is very uncertain.<\/p>\n
Research process: Because the question for the debate was too specific we had to narrow our research as we were told to focused on questioning whether global average near-surface air temperature has increased regardless of the sources. Most of the skeptics\u2019 arguments are based on denying climate change due to anthropogenic causes so we had to be very careful on the direction we were about to take.<\/p>\n
During the debate it was clear that journalists shared the skeptical attitude towards climate change and the uncertainties arising from it. Natural scientist talked about climate change with indirect evidences and could not argued the statements about the imperfections in current techniques.<\/p>\n
Politicians claimed that climate change is evident as they showed consequences in Greenland\u2019s ice- cover.<\/p>\n
As a conclusion of the debate we can say that it was difficult to follow a line of discussion as we ended up deviating from the original question.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
As we all know, the reliability of temperature trends is very important in climate change we need to be sure we can trust historical measurements. First we found stations have exposure problem. There is a survey from 2009 in the US to check the quality of the measurement\u2019s environment of 1,221 climate-monitoring stations belongs toContinue reading “Role play-1 Skeptical arguments”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":461,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[5],"tags":[6,14],"class_list":["post-394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-role-play-1","tag-ideas","tag-role-play"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/climate_skeptic.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/394","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=394"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/394\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1012,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/394\/revisions\/1012"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/461"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=394"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=394"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/uncertain2degrees.blogs.uni-hamburg.de\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=394"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}