We all agreed that a certain amount of uncertainty is inherent in climate science as well as in other fields of science. The question now is not if uncertainty exists or can be eliminated, but rather how well it can be quantified and how this should be communicated. Uncertainty is often misunderstood and frequently confused with an error or a mistake done during research [1]. By the public, uncertainty is often interpreted as the scientist’s lack of knowledge, hence something negative which makes life unnecessarily difficult. Also, scientists are often not too happy about uncertainty, well aware of the fact that it is often interpreted as a lack of quality of their work [1].
However, there are also positive aspects of uncertainty which I came to realize throughout this course. Similar to Ella in her blog post, I would like to summarize a few of these aspects and explain why everyone, scientists as well as the public, should be happy about a certain degree of inherent uncertainty.
- Uncertainty drives humans
What would science be without uncertainty? Scientists normally do not focus on science that is “settled” but rather strive to gain knowledge of the unknown and add new findings to the scientific information pool [1]. If a matter is regarded as settled it is rarely questioned and nearly impossible to improve. Curiosity and the urge to gain knowledge on topics that are uncertain is the underlying engine of science. It is this engine that drives scientists to question, hypothesize and analyze topics and motivates them to spend a great amount of their time on a specific research topic.
- Uncertainty is a sign of certainty
Uncertainty may be considered as an error or a lack of scientific knowledge. It would, however, be more reasonable to look at uncertainty as a quantification of certainty. When researchers are able to describe and quantify uncertainty, they know a lot about the strengths and weaknesses of the underlying science [1]. Take as an example the set-up of an experiment. If you want to quantify the uncertainty of your experiment you will start by finding possible sources which may influence it. Afterwards you try to find out how big their impact is. By giving an uncertainty range you are able to quantify the impact a specific uncertainty source could produce. Through this procedure you constrain what you do not know and ultimately reach more certainty of what you do know [2].
- Uncertainty provides context
The more precise we can estimate the range of uncertainty, the more valuable the information becomes. Without estimates of uncertainty, valuable information can be completely useless. We need uncertainty to provide transparency, to allow discussion and to give context to the findings. Uncertainty adds value and background information to scientific findings. It serves as a basis for scientific debates and can steer future scientific research in a specific direction.
These are just a few ways to approach uncertainty in a more positive way, but I think it is important to keep them in mind when talking, thinking, and writing essays about uncertainty. If you can think of more positive aspects of uncertainty, I would be interested to hear them.
All in all, I think we are lucky that uncertainty is inherent because without it, science -as we know it- would not exist!
Sources:
[1] Gibbs, P., Hanlon, M., Hardaker, P., Hawkins, E., MacDonald, A., Maskell, K., … & Naylor, M. (2013). Making sense of uncertainty: why uncertainty is part of science.
[2] Chad Orzel, Oct 8, 2015, The Certainty Of Uncertainty: Scientists Know Exactly How Well We Don’t Know Things, https://www.forbes.com/sites/chadorzel/2015/10/08/the-certainty-of-uncertainty-scientists-know-exactly-how-well-we-dont-know-things/ (last access: 10.08.2020)
Hi Hanna, this is a very interesting post. I completely agree with you. I believe we can and must change the public’s views on uncertainty. Throughout this course, I have come to accept that uncertainty does not mean that there is something wrong with the results but rather means there is room for improvement. It is rather unfortunate that some of the public see it as an error/mistake. Meanwhile, uncertainty and errors/mistakes are completely different. With these points that you highlight here and how uncertainty education is gradually changing people’s views on the subject matter, I believe everyone or at least most people will come to accept uncertainties for what it is, “a room for improvement”.
Hi Hanna, thanks for providing this positive viewpoint on uncertainty! I just came to think while reading your post, that inherent uncertainty might also stimulate scientific competition. Through the awareness that every experiment will have an attached uncertainty, many research groups are led to researching on the same topic or on the same problem. This then leads to progress through exchange of ideas or discussion of different findings, and finally to narrowing down the uncertainties.