Uncertainty: an excuse?

I have always wondered what is keeping people from understanding the urgency of action to fight the climate crisis. Apart from big corporations’ greed and the whole capitalist economic system, which of course needs to be radically changed, what is in the mind of the rest of the population that do not emotionally and rationally perceive the urge? What is slowing people down to take action for their own and everybody’s sake? One of the possible answers that this master has given me is the communication of climate change and its uncertainty.

 

Something must be wrong in the way science surrounding climate is shared with the broad public. The communication of the word “uncertainty” itself could be highly misleading to people that do not have a scientific background. Every scientist faces uncertainty in everyday life. But what about the rest of society? The word “uncertainty” could have a wide range of interpretations. In the panel discussion, Dr. Isabelle Uhl-Hädicke said that people cannot deal with uncertainty in their lives, and for them to perceive climate science and lead towards climate action, it is better to give them certainties. “Clear instructions on how to face climate change could reduce an individual’s lack of control and, consequently, the need to suppress the threat” (Uhl-Hädicke et al., 2017) of the climate crisis, leading to direct action.

 

Moreover, in an article about the comprehension of numbers in the news, it is stated that “it might even be the case that this simpler statement outperforms the more accurate, but likely more difficult to remember, perspective” (Barrio et al., 2016). It is maybe easier for people to lead their life being certain and feeling secure about their world, leaving the uncertainty of life in the hands of supernatural power, than to process the fact that there always will be a range of uncertainty in everyday life. Looking at the times we are living in, who would have suspected a global pandemic at the end of 2019? Would I ever go out my front door every day and wonder what chances are there to be hit by a car? Or that my plane would crash? Those are not uncertainties people use to care about. But there still are chances for these scenarios to happen. People keep driving cars and taking planes, and I will still go out my front door every day. 

 

Why when it comes to uncertainty in climate, does this behaviour completely change? Why don’t we act anyway, even with uncertainty? I have come to think that regardless of the countless uncertainties we have in everyday life, that we learn to ignore or to live with since childhood, we have not dealt with the uncertainty in the climate crisis yet. Since the beginning of humankind, humans have had to face the unpredictability of death. And yes, they also had to face different climates and adapt to continuous changes. But in one’s lifespan, who has dealt with a changing climate? It is not in our historic memory. It is too far away in time to recall it and act in the best way usually experience would have already taught. Moreover, this time it is not some God sending a plague to punish humankind, it is humankind that is calling a plague upon itself. Maybe it is just hard to take responsibility for it? Because everyone is responsible, to some extent. What keeps people from acting in the best way possible to prevent a catastrophe, or at least try to?

 

“Many people perceive climate change as psychologically distant—a set of uncertain events that might occur far in the future, impacting distant places and affecting people dissimilar to themselves.” (Jones et al., 2017). Do we need to be hit personally, when it is going to be too late to act, to do something about it? If at some point in time we will be affected as well, and if science gives us the magic sphere to predict this future – of course with some uncertainty – why is it too hard to act now? No matter the extent of the uncertainties, there is scientific consensus that the climate crisis is happening, and that we are causing it. And it is not a matter of if it will hit, but when and how hard it is going to hit. Do we wait to know the exact time and amount of rain before going out with an umbrella?

 

To conclude this flow of thoughts, I just would like to say that even if we are not able to subvert the economic system overnight, we still have the power of our everyday choices. And yes, it is our responsibility to leave the place better than how we found it, if we still want to have one.

 

 

References:

Uhl-Hädicke, I., Klackl, J., Hansen, N., & Jonas, E. (2017). Undesirable effects of threatening climate change information: A cross-cultural study. Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, p.7.

Barrio, P. J., Goldstein, D. G., Hofman, J. M. (2016). Improving comprehension of numbers in the news. CHI’16, May 07 – 12, 2016, San Jose, CA, USA, p. 2738. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2858036.2858510

Jones, C., Hine, D. W., & Marks A. D. G. (2017). The future is now: Reducing psychological distance to increase public engagement with climate change. Risk Analysis, Vol. 37, No. 2, p. 340.

 

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