According to the 2020 Global Risks Report, climate change dominates all five of the top risks by likelihood. An IPCC report says a changing climate has brought about unprecedented weather and climate extremes with increased frequency and intensity. In this regard, building more sustainable societies that are resilient to natural hazards is one of the imperative actions to progress towards sustainability. However, uncertainties in climate science has caused environmental controversies and worsen people’s belief in weather and climate predictions, thereby offering an easy excuse to those who are not willing to engage in activities against climate change. In the next section, I would introduce a new type of weather or climate services as one of the ways to overcome uncertainty issues by reducing the gap between the public and government organizations based on local partnership.
First, local partnership helps create a new paradigm shift in weather services: impact-based or impact forecasts incorporating unique local data. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) describes that significant damage and casualties resulting from hydro-meteorological events have been rising, despite many of these events being well forecast, and warnings being issued. It is because of a perceived gap between the forecasts and an understanding of the potential impacts by responding agencies and the public [1]. The necessity of a new type of weather service including impact information arose, in order to advise people of effective actions to take against weather events. However, acquiring knowledge of local exposure and vulnerability of people, livelihood and property needed for the new service requires strong cooperation with the local community. For example, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has developed impact-based heat wave forecasts by working together with relevant government agencies at the local level and municipalities responsible for emergency management to collect necessary data. As a result, the impact-based forecasts―including information on the impacts of heat waves and appropriate actions in different sectors such as health, fisheries, agriculture, and energy by region―were able to offer actual assistance to emergency management organizations and the public in responding to heat waves and related disasters.
Second, participation of local society plays a critical role in service delivery, monitoring and verification, by promoting a better understanding and complementing limited networks of automated weather stations of National Weather and Hydrological Services (NWHSs). As the effectiveness of weather services is dependent on the ability of people to use the information and take proper action, active communication with the media and specific users, through on-line platforms, regular meetings and training sessions, is required to improve people’s understanding of general features and potential limits of weather services. In addition, locals’ participation is needed in monitoring and verification of impact forecasts. Real-time monitoring and feedback from local citizens on the predicted impacts can be reflected in the production of forecasts to increase forecast accuracy. Verification can be achieved using unconventional observations such as data captured from mobiles and webcams―through crowd sourcing technologies [1]. According to a survey by Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG), 86% of 22 NMHSs in Europe actively utilize crowdsourced data, encouraging citizens and storm spotters to report weather- and damage-related observations on a voluntary basis. Those data are mainly used for the improvement of weather forecasts and warnings in real-time and verification of weather warnings. There is no doubt that cooperation between NMHSs and local citizens makes a significant contribution to the implementation of impact forecast and warning services, substituting data requirements.
However, different languages and cultures, and poor infrastructure can function as barriers to communication. The society with many indigenous peoples has difficulties with social communication because of diverse languages and cultures. Although new IT technologies have a positive impact on participation processes by creating online platforms for service delivery and local engagement, to developing countries without sufficient capacity, engaging with relevant stakeholders still remains a challenge [2]. For example, much of the Pacific region comprised of small island states and a great number of traditional lands of many indigenous peoples, using different languages, has difficulty translating meteorological phenomena and scientific terminology into local languages and dialects. Unique religions and cultures of indigenous peoples, which should be understood and respected, also negatively affect effective networking. Moreover, a lack of modern communication infrastructure including limited coverage of television, radio and cellular in the region makes it more difficult to provide an online platform for people’s participation as well as to transfer weather information via internet. To improve communication and connectivity, it is necessary that societies promote participatory tools including a local workshop and an outreach and education program with support for infrastructure development.
In conclusion, close interactions within the community are the greatest potential for sustainable development by strengthening social resilience to weather and climate extremes through advanced weather services. Strong collaboration among NMHSs, municipalities, local emergency response agencies and citizens contributed to developing a new form of weather service which led to increased effectiveness of weather services. I would believe that despite uncertainty lying on climate science, cooperative activities can help the society to increase mutual understanding, leading to enhanced trust in weather services.
References
[1] World Meteorological Organization, WMO guidelines on multi-hazard impact-based forecast and warning services, World Meteorological Organization, WMO-No. 1150. Geneva, Switzerland, 2015.
[2] Ania ROK, Stefan KUHN, Local sustainability and changes in political culture. 2012