We can’t predict the future with precision, but that doesn’t mean we can’t prepare for it.
Uncertainty is a natural source of discomfort for people. When faced with tough decisions. some people tightly latch on to facts and evidence, number and graphs, probabilities and data. Others turn to spiritual beliefs. When those don’t exist or include too many unknowns, it can lead to indecision.
Yet uncertainty is all around us. Tsunamis, a global economic crash caused by a financial bubble, ecosystem collapse following the loss of a keystone species, the surprise win of a presidential candidate — the unexpected is present everywhere, and we are usually poorly prepared for how surprising events will ripple throughout society, the environment, the economy, and our everyday lives.
This is also true for climate change. It is certain that climate change is happening and is driven by human factors. But its inherently complex nature makes it less clear what the impacts will be—including when and where they’ll happen, or to what degree. The
uncertainty of future climate policies, greenhouse gas emissions, complex climate and socioeconomic feedback loops, and unknown tipping points all further complicate our projections.
But this doesn’t mean we can’t or shouldn’t act to try to reduce risk. Indeed, it would be disastrous not to. Scientific uncertainty will always exist to some extent about any complex problem, climate change included. Rather than turning our hands in indecision, it’s important to understand this uncertainty, embrace it as a given, and move forward with ambitious action.
4 Important Considerations for Effectively Dealing with Uncertainty
1.Awareness: Before doing anything else, it’s important to acknowledge that uncertainty exists, and learn how to communicate about it to relevant stakeholders. Uncertainty may be difficult to perceive and measure, but this doesn’t mean it’s not present—nor does it justify
inaction.
2.Flexibility: It’s often crucial to have a strategy capable of being dynamic and adaptive as the situation changes since that is often the case when it comes to the effects of climate change. Being able to respond quickly is paramount—whether the response is to smoothly
evacuate thousands of citizens into shelters in an emergency or to more proactively strengthen levies and increase the drainage rate of water pumps as tidal flooding intensifies.
3.Robustness: Any effective climate strategy should be able to withstand different pressures without breaking. Planners can advise farmers to diversify their livelihoods as much as possible to withstand the income and food losses from a bad crop year, a prolonged drought or severe flooding. Receiving income from fishing, handcrafts and other non-farm services could help buffer against a financial crisis and increase resilience.
4.Context: Adaptation to climate change is ultimately local and depends on local realities, circumstances, cultural norms, perspectives and resources. There is no one-size-fits-all solution. Mitigation strategies can also be highly context-dependent; one nation might be better off reducing emissions through reforestation or green infrastructure, while another may choose cap-and-trade or invest in renewable energies.
Even with the best science and information, the future — especially when it comes to climate change and its threat-multiplying effects — often remains highly uncertain, and therefore highly unpredictable.
However, that doesn’t mean we can’t have the best possible preparation in place. The first step is to realize the uncertainty that is all around, and, instead of shying away from it, embrace it and tackle it head-on.
Nevertheless, climate change uncertainty is a reality, one that we can’t afford to ignore. Decision-makers can’t wait for perfect information. Rather, they need to take what they know and formulate the best plan possible using all the tools at their disposal.