Which role do uncertainties play in the (scientific-political-media) debate about the 2-degree-limit’?

The discussion about climate change and its dramatic consequences has started in the 70’s, back then society was not ready to take the problem in a serious way, scientists could not provide convincing evidences and sceptics in media and politics denied global warming. The event that finally attracted sufficient attention to the issue was the ratification of Kyoto protocol in 1992 which was the first step towards Paris agreement considering 2 degrees target in 2015.
The debate seemed to be advocated to how certain we are about global warming, if it actually takes place and what is the anthropogenic role of the phenomenon. In this context, uncertainty in 2 degrees target, and achieving it, plays a major role. Scientific uncertainties of the target are related with diverse variables and with white spots in the understanding of natural processes, as well as possible consequences of human impact. Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that we are not facing a mere problem about numbers we also have to think that, -in a human time-scale -, we might be compromising our existence. To tackle this problem, we need political actions. But on the political arena, there are also large uncertainties. Governments, in some cases do not have a well standardized procedure to approach warming effects and do not have clear what they must implement in order to face future effects. In some other cases, they could argue there are not enough resources to face, mitigate and adapt to global warming. Alongside this, international cooperation is needed. Here another aspect comes up, the role that every country should play is uncertain, and at the same time they have potential to create large positive impacts, which could need hundreds of years to be seen. Even with all these uncertainties, Paris agreement accomplished the 2 degree target, acknowledging the importance of tackling the potential effects on humans.

Authors: estmon, monikmin, martar42, xuebai95