The Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook defines possible climate futures as “consistent with our joint understanding of climate and social dynamics”, while plausible climate futures are a subcategory of possible futures with the criterion “to unfold with appreciable probability” (Engels et al.,2023).
A possible climate future that is yet not plausible is covering a large share of Europe’s energy demand by importing solar energy that is produced in North Africa. While a project like this could decrease Europe’s dependence on fossil fuels and therefore reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly, major problems and uncertainties remain. Besides technical uncertainties and a high investment risk, political instabilities in the North African countries are primary obstacles. For a better assessment of the plausibility of this climate future further knowledge about the political dynamics would be essential. Furthermore, more research on energy transport and storage would be necessary.
A plausible climate future would be a climate future in which cities are better adapted to increasing temperatures. Hereby, adaptation measures potentially could comprise green and blue spaces, free drinking fountains, more bike paths and an adapted city concept that includes ventilation paths. Furthermore, social services could be implemented for better education and health care. For the assessment of the plausibility of this climate future, a better understanding of current adaptation endeavors of cities would be required as well as potential challenges in the implementation of the measures.