When we talk about such a global problem as climate change, we try to predict all possible outcomes from the current situation. However, a possible outcome does not always mean plausible. This can apply to events that have negative consequences as well as positive ones. The Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023 provides an analysis of plausibility and assessment of nowadays well-defined climate futures.
We can talk about the possibilities of any technological breakthroughs, for example in the field of CO2 removal methods, which will contribute to the rapid and effective achievement of pre-industrial levels of global temperature and carbon dioxide content. Or a global world conflict with climate change as a background, a huge number of climate refugees, and in general a major catastrophe for all humanity. Even though such events are possible in theory, we cannot call them plausible, based on our current realities, with our current technological progress and security.
Plausible and possible climate futures are based on a rational, realistic estimation of the problem. We cannot sharply and maximally reduce all sources of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, we cannot make huge global investments in solving this problem without colossal damage to the global economy and without resistance in society. However, we can gradually, following the realities of today, move in the direction we need, trying to assess the situation as objectively as possible. For example, while the goal of maintaining global temperatures at 1.5 degrees below the pre-industrial levels by 2050 is no longer achievable, a goal of 2.0 degrees is plausible with appropriate decarbonization and transformation efforts.
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