SICSS Master Students reaction to uncertainty regarding the 2 degrees limit presented by the scientists
Now it comes to the 6th roleplay of uncertainty 2 degrees limit on how people react to the uncertainty presented by the scientists regarding the 2 degrees limit with five players on the stage and some observing lecturers. This is the most interesting session in terms of the role-players as we have curious 8 years old children, retired physics professors, VW retailers and young coffee-to-go owners.
The panel discussion started by the opening statement from the retired Professors who understand that uncertainty is naturally part of science. It is then followed by the opening statement of 8 years old children who are curious about uncertainty. As a dedicated SICSS master student, we realize that knowledge/scientific finding is always imperfect i.e. there is always uncertainty inherited within new scientific findings. Despite of this inherited uncertainty, the output is the best result of scientific process scientists have been through. Concerning that our knowledge about climate system mostly built upon model, we know that we always have uncertainty in it, because the real climate system is much more complex. But it is the best estimate we have, and in fact, we can, to some extent, describe dynamical processes, do experiment and even enhance our knowledge upon it. Thus, we perceive uncertainty as an inevitable, which needs to be carefully taken care of.
However, we are aware that there are different perceptions/views of how people see uncertainty. For example, VW retailers see uncertainty as an obscure factor to run their business, because they think that they experience less uncertainty in their business. They see the climate debate is uncertain and demand the scientists to be certain e.g. prohibit the circulation of the old car to reduce greenhouse gas emission. This is not true, Prof. Behrens said, because in fact, car producers actually realize that there is uncertainty in their products. They are unsure about how long and how perfect their car will work, but they take the risk by giving the warranty to the consumers in return. The young coffee-to-go owners have an interest in knowing more about uncertainty regarding the 2 degrees limit and they would like to know what they can do to contribute on their part.
As we can see, when uncertainty is communicated to the public, it may have negative effect because people just don’t realize that they also experience uncertainty in daily basis. Many people see uncertainty in science as an area that is not known by the scientist, but it is not always true, because for scientist, uncertainty is the area of probability where the outcome will emerge. This misunderstanding would be tackled if we communicate the uncertainty in more public-friendly way. For example, we could communicate it in an infographic where people can see visually and understand how uncertainty means and what is the impact of it.
The discussion closed by the ice cream analogy of the 2 degrees limit explained by Estefania to the 8 years old children. If we assume that climate system is our health condition, we have limit to which we will get sick. The 2 degrees limit is like the number of ice cream a kid can consume within a day to stay healthy.