Accepting that current approaches will not facilitate the fulfilment of the “” suggests that the applicability of alternative targets or methods should be considered. Additionally, most current climate models rely on the future influence of negative emission technologies (NETs) (i.e. bio-energy combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), re-/afforestation, etc.) which are an attractive prospect for the global community as these would facilitate so called “overshoot” scenarios where the current target is treated as a benchmark in the longer term. Future investment into NETs to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations would be expected to allow the return of mean global surface temperatures below this threshold (Geden, 2013; van Vuuren, et al., 2013). However, the lack of consideration by policymakers of the degree of uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of such technologies suggests a lack of caution in favour of continuing current use of fossil fuels and the economic stability this provides.
Therefore, we believe that alternative targets should be considered which will assist in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the short-term while also making capital available which could be used for a variety of purposes, including the support of:
- the development of low or neutral emission energy resources and negative emission technologies;
- the mitigation of the effects of climate change;
- and the improvement of the quality of life of the global human population.
One such alternative target is a transition towards a “Carbon Neutral Society” which follows the assumption that the effect of an emission of a unit of greenhouse gas into the environment is equal and opposite to the effect of a reduction from the environment of the same unit of the same greenhouse gas. Such a target could be facilitated using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) which simulate climate projections from narrative-based scenarios of social, technological and economic development through time. van Vuuren et al. (2018) use IAMs to explore the influence of different magnitudes of uniform carbon tax initiatives (which place an explicit price on greenhouse gas emissions) on the reliance upon NETs and determine that the implementation of such initiatives can reduce future reliance on uncertain NETs.
Furthermore, the implementation of carbon tax schemes across all regions and sectors would move responsibility away from politically-orientated authorities who, by necessity, must respond to the voting pressure while continuing to facilitate the redistribution of capital from high-volume greenhouse gas emitters (i.e. coal-fired power plants) back into states for public tax-relief, the transitional support of industry and the support of climate investments, to name some examples (Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition, 2016).
Finally, the magnitude of any carbon taxes applied could be scaled using IAM projections if global emissions are observed to be above/ below target pathways which may avoid or compensate for future incidents such as state failures to meet emission reduction commitments submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (i.e. German authorities expect an emissions reduction ~8% below their commitment of 40% by 2020 (Jordans, 2018)).
danbur & larmoe
Works Cited
Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition, 2016. What are the options for using carbon pricing revenues?, s.l.: Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition.
Geden, O., 2013. Modifying the 2 °C Target, Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik.
Jordans, F., 2018. Germany will fail 2020 climate goals, now eyes 2030 target. [Online]
Available at: https://phys.org/news/2018-06-germany-climate-goals-eyes.html
[Accessed 13 July 2018].
van Vurren, D. P. et al., 2018. Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies.
Nature Climate Change, Volume 8, pp. 391-397.
van Vuuren, D. P. et al., 2013. The role of negative CO2 emissions for reaching 2 °C – insights from integrated assessment modelling. Climate Change, Volume 118, pp. 15-27.